Thursday, October 13, 2011

Interview with ARM's Mobile Computing Team - ARM Community

Posted by Jonathan Lawton,

10 October 2011

Over the next five years, ARM?s opportunity to grow royalty revenue is driven by multiple markets that are growing structurally and where we may also gain share. This post is one of five where we look at each of these markets.

In this blog we interview Roy Chen, Director of Client Computing at ARM to discuss the impact of mobile computing growth for ARM.

Hi Roy, mobile computing can mean many things, how do you define it at ARM, how big is the market, and what is ARM?s current market share?
Hi Jonathan, at ARM, we define the mobile computing market as that category of products which lie between the smartphone and the desktop computer. Today, examples of such products are tablets, netbooks, laptops, notebooks and eReaders. Other form factors are likely to emerge as we look forward.

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In 2010, there were just over 200m mobile computing products sold and independent analysts expect this market to reach around 750m devices by 2015, a CAGR of 27%. ARM already has a high penetration in the ancillary chips found in mobile computers, such as connectivity chips and hard disk drives (HDD). ARM is now looking to increase its overall penetration in the application processors within mobile computers. The application processor, also often referred to as the CPU, runs the main operating systems, the user interface, and all software applications, such as web-browser, email tool and games. In 2010, ARM-processor based chips could be found in nearly all the applications processors in tablets and eReaders, but in few of the other form factors. With about 25m tablets and eReaders shipped in 2010, ARM had a market share of about 10% in the mobile computing market.

Why has ARM been so successful in the tablet market?
ARM technology delivers high performance computing at very low power, enabling mobile computers with an all day battery-life. So far, this balance of power and performance has not been replicated by any other computer architecture. In addition, ARM?s business model means that multiple semiconductor companies can develop chips for this fast growing market. OEMs benefit from both a choice of semiconductor supplier, and a broad ecosystem of different operating systems, middleware, and applications. Together these enable OEMs to build differentiated mobile computers for consumers.

Do you think that ARM will be able to grow its market share in mobile computing going forward?
Yes. According to the latest estimates from Gartner, the tablet computing market is expected to grow extremely strongly, from just 25m units sold in 2010 to nearly 300m units by 2015. Consequentially, the tablet market is forecast to make up nearly 40% of the total mobile computing market by 2015. Given that nearly all of the tablets shipped today contain an ARM-based applications processor and ARM?s technology leads in this area, we believe that ARM will continue to enjoy a high market share in tablets in 2015. Therefore, as the tablet market becomes an ever-increasing proportion of the mobile computing market so ARM?s share of the overall market is expected to grow.

What about traditional netbooks and laptops, can ARM gain share here too?
Our Partners latest application processors have the performance and power capabilities to be used in all types of mobile computing form factors, including netbooks and laptops. However, for ARM to gain share in the conventional mobile PC markets we need the support of a PC-class operating system and software ecosystem. This is because, unlike tablets, consumers expect to be able to run PC-like software on their devices, such as Microsoft Office.

Until recently, Microsoft?s ?big? Windows operating system has not been available on ARM, however in January 2011 Microsoft announced that it had started developing its next generation of ?Windows 8? operating system and that it would work with ARM technology. More recently, Microsoft demonstrated Windows running on ARM-technology based chips from NVIDIA, Qualcomm and TI and office applications (Word and Powerpoint), Internet Explorer and Windows Media Player all running on ARM-based application processors. Google has also announced that its Chrome operating systems for PCs will run on ARM-technology based chips.

It will take time to develop a PC-like ecosystem around ARM?s technology. This is because it is not just the operating system that needs to be developed around ARM technology but also third-party software may need to be optimised to run on ARM. So although we expect to make market share gains in these markets, we don?t expect these to be material to our revenues before 2014.

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So overall then Roy, how should we think about ARM?s penetration in the mobile computing market?
Many analysts believe that ARM can capture more than 50% of the overall mobile computing market by 2015. This is based on assumptions around strong tablet growth and ARM maintaining a high share within tablets, and also ARM gaining some share of the traditional mobile PC market.

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Thanks for your time Roy, mobile computing clearly represents a very exciting opportunity for ARM in the next few years.
Yes, absolutely.

Other ARM?s growth drivers over the next five years

- Smartphones
- Digital TVs
- Hard disk drives
- Microcontrollers

Jonathan Lawton, Business Analyst for Investor Relations, ARM. Jonathan joined the ARM team in 2010 and is, among other things, responsible for helping generate and improve the key metrics that demonstrate ARM?s progress to the investment community. Prior to working at ARM, Jonathan worked as a Business Analyst for Abcam Plc and as an Investment Analyst in the venture capital industry. Jonathan has a Ph.D from the University of Cambridge.


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